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. As well note, the writer of the article and his direct family members do not currently hold a financial position in TLF.Intended Audience
Summary Points to Take
Away
Analysis
Analysis into AR and Inventory can also point to signs of operational issues with the business, but as a % of totalassets they've remained relatively stable with small annual declines; thus, implying that management is continuing tostrive in reducing their cash operating cycle.
Cash Flow
TLF continues
to produce cash, CFO per share for the last 4 quarters (starting with Q3 2008) has
been $0.94 per share (cummulative),
which is significant given an average share price of $2. Excess cash isn't used
on wastefulacquisitions where
the acquired company shareholders get all the value, continues to be spent on
stock buybacks orcontinuation of
retail store expansion with the goal of increasing future EPS.
Attractive Forward P/E
Current EPS estimates
for FY2009 per analyst ("taken from Yahoo Finance") are $0.29 per share, which
is not off the mark from
my estimation of $0.25 per share. Based on a share price of $2, this would make
the forward P/E 8Xearnings. This is
viewed as a conservative estimate as sales growth forecast was pegged at 4% in
my estimate (withnet income as a % of
sales staying stable), which is on the low end considering the store location
expansion planfrom 72 to 120 stores
that is expected over the next several years.
Management has "Skin in the
Game"
To have "skin in the
game" means that management has something to lose if TLF's stock began to
perform poorly. Since management
has a large stake in the company, they have an incentive to add value to TLF in
order to see arise in the stock
price; thus the incentives for management and the shareholders are aligned. This
implies that management will
not only manage the performance of the company, but of the stock as well, reducing
the probabilitythat shareholders
will be penalized by the company with bad financial decisions.
Largest in their Market
Space
TLF is the largest retailer within the leather and leather
related products market with numerous small competitors that
actuallypurchases goods from
TLF's wholesale division and re-sells them. This makes each of these small
competing retailers an advertiser for TLF since it
is TLF's products they are selling, which gives TLF tremendous pricing power
within the market; thus, furtherevidence that current
margins of 59% (Q2 2008) are sustainable.
Appealing Management Style
Listening
to management's presentation during numerous quarterly earnings call, it is
apparent that they are veryprudent and fiscally
sound executives as evidenced by the strong build up of cash and the slow
execution of theplanned store
expansion. This is a desired trait for a company planning on aggressively
expanding their operations asit is important to
keep control to ensure that operations don't turn sour during the
process.
Other Analysts Like it"
Merriman Curhan
Ford" Issued a Buy recommendation on the stock on August 6, 2008 while it was
trading at $2.85.They view it as a
growth stock as number of stores is expected to rise from 72 locations
(currently) to 120. If you extrapolate
the FY2007 EPS based on the expected % increase in the number of locations, at some
point once theexpansion is
complete, EPS could be $0.47 per share, making the forward P/E 4.3X future
earnings (assuming acurrent share price
of $2). Please review their research report on TLF for further details and
relevant disclosures.
Where to go from
here?
Thanks,
Simon
Simon Giannakis is the founder and creator of www.thatstockguy.NET . He is a Senior Accountant within the Assurance and Advisory group at an international public accounting firm in Toronto, Ontario. Simon is a Chartered Accountant and currently pursuing his CFA designation. Simon can be contacted through thatstockguy.net@gmail.com .